I have often said that conferences are my personal art form. This year will be my masterpiece. Not only have we been able to assemble an incredible lineup of speakers but the information flow of what you need to know now is as good as I can possibly make it. I'm extraordinarily proud of what my team has been able to accomplish. I want to briefly go down the lineup so you can understand both who, and more importantly the why about whom, we will be listening to.
The first day (Monday, April 22) will help set the stage for the rest of the conference. I believe we are heading to a crisis later this decade (hopefully not sooner) brought about by a number of factors. We're going to examine the crisis then our speakers and panels will show us how to get through the storm.
My leadoff hitter for the last 14 years has been David Rosenberg. His fast-paced presentation of facts, humor, and analysis always makes him one of the highest-rated speakers.
I have not made a presentation at my own conference for a very long time, by design. This year though, I will be talking about the elephant in the crisis room: government debt, not just in the US but worldwide. Further, we will look at the cycles coming together in a few years, and not in a good way. Whether you consider government debt to be part of the Debt Supercycle or not, I think it will be the pin that finds the bubble, forcing an explosion of events that will require a compromise that everyone will hate, but will be necessary to move forward as a society.
Then right on time, Dr. Lacy Hunt and Danielle DiMartino Booth will explain what $50–$60 trillion of government debt will do to the economy and how it will affect everything else. Then we shift to the one and only Liz Ann Sonders, managing director and chief investment strategist for Schwab, overseeing almost $8 trillion in assets. She sees everything in the world of finance and economics and understands how it connects. Private conversations with her are treasured memories. This is Must See SIC.
Next, we dive into cycles. First up is Neil Howe of Fourth Turning fame. Almost 30 years ago, he wrote a book outlining what would happen in the teens and 20s, which we now know was uncannily prescient. Over the years, I kept asking him where the war, which seems to accompany the end of the Fourth Turning, would come from. I no longer ask that question.
Then we turn to a new name, Professor Peter Turchin, who along with his extensive team has identified a cycle in hundreds of societies over the millennia, which is determined by the overproduction of elites. Significant wealth and income disparities that generally (but not always) lead to frustration, wars and/or revolution. He will (hopefully) show us how other societies have avoided that outcome by making conscious decisions to fix the problems.
Next, George Friedman shares his analysis of two specific geopolitical cycles: one 80-year and one 50-year cycle. They typically end in war and geopolitical crises. For the first time, they will coincide at the end of this decade. (Dun, dun, duuun!)
Then we all come together for the final panel of the day, moderated by the best interviewer of our time, Grant Williams. We discuss what that crisis will actually look like from their perspectives. Are other parts of the world likely to have similar experiences? A kinetic war involving the US and/or Europe? Civil war? Are some cities safer than others? How do we know? That is all Must See SIC.
The next Wednesday we start off with the inimitable Felix Zulauf, legendary Swiss money manager and billionaire, whose macro views have been uncannily right over the last decades. Always one of the highest-rated speakers, this will be one presentation you will want to view and then reread the transcripts. Grant Williams will get the best out of him.
While at Goldman Sachs, for nine consecutive years, Leon Cooperman was voted the number-one portfolio strategist in the Institutional Investor “All-America Research Team” survey. Easily one of the top investors in the world, he formed Omega Advisors in 1991 and went on to make billions for his clients and himself when he ran Omega Advisors. David Bahnsen will interview him on how he is structuring his world today. Truly, a master class from a master investor.
Notice commodities getting hot again? Vincent Deluard is the global macro strategist at StoneX, the largest company you have never heard of (59th by revenue in the US) with over 100 years of commodities in its DNA. Vincent is brilliant, winning awards and advising many of the largest funds in the world on strategy, besides speaking English, French, Italian, and Indonesian(!).
Louis Gave has been coming to my conference for almost 20 years. He is a crowd favorite because he channels his wisdom into actionable advice. He opened the GaveKal offices in Hong Kong in 2002 when they realized that China would become a major global force. Growing up with famed conservative French economist Charles Gave, he understands global markets and investing from a unique perspective. His clients include some of the largest institutional investors in the world, and the information flow is two-way, giving him unparalleled insight. I no longer ask Louis to speak on a particular topic, as it is best to let him tell us what is important today. Be sure to take notes.
For the first time at the SIC, celebrated investor Mario Gabelli will join us. In the late 1960s, Mr. Gabelli covered Pinkertons, which Warren Buffett owned. More importantly, Mr. Buffett was taught by Professor Graham at Columbia Business School, and Mr. Gabelli was taught by Graham and Dodd’s successor, Roger Murray. What a pedigree!
Then we jump into our China panel with Louis Gave, Emily de La Bruyère, and Lyric Hughes Hale. Emily is an expert on Chinese data and military issues, is fluent in Chinese, and understands the important issue of dual-use technology. Lyric speaks six languages fluently, including Japanese and Chinese, has lived in both countries, and is deeply connected to the leadership there, having grown up with them. She literally brought the 1986 Super Bowl to China (the Ditka Bears). I am on a weekly call with her and a group of very serious and successful traders. They revere her. Hard to get a better panel on China than this.
Then two gentlemen will talk economics, markets, and the Fed. Peter Boockvar is my go-to source for real-time data analysis on all things economic. My readers know I quote him more than any of my other sources. He is that good. He will be with Dr. Ed Yardeni, whom I have known for over 25 years, and he just keeps getting it right on the economy and markets—often being the contrarian, but more often just being right. Ed is bullish right now and Peter is worried if I read them right. Ed D’Agostino will tease out the nuances of their positions.
That brings us to Friday, April the 26th. We start off with one of the most wired-in political analysts in DC: Bruce Mehlman. His presentations always get me thinking. It's a strange political season but Bruce will help us make sense of it.
Then we get a very special session. Renè Aninao is quickly becoming the All-Star geopolitical analyst for the large fund and corporate world. I am privileged to get his letter, and I will tell you that I typically drop everything and read it when it hits my inbox. He has deep contacts in the defense, state, and treasury departments, as well as national security organizations in the US and abroad. I have a lot of influential and connected friends, so it's hard to say who is more wired, but Renè would certainly be at the top of the list. He really doesn't do conferences or media, but because of our relationship, he agreed… with an interesting twist.
He thinks one of the most important things that's happening in the world today is under everyone's radar: the problems that exist with dual-use technology. That is technology like certain chips that can be used in both traditional and military applications. It can get complex and complicated really quickly. He has pulled together four of his contacts, all experts in the field, to help us understand how this will affect economies all over the world and the significant implications it has for National Defense. Again, Must See SIC. You won't see this analysis anywhere else.
Next, four-time Zillow award winner for best mortgage analyst, Barry Habib, gives us his assessment of the US housing market. He has been amazingly correct in his previous SIC appearances, and I would expect nothing less today. He has been spot-on about the Fed and inflation for years now, which is why he keeps getting those Zillow awards.
One of the most successful and legendary investors in history is Ron Baron. He has an uncanny knack for discovering “small” companies on their way to becoming giants. If you could somehow have been lucky enough to get into his early funds, you would be considerably wealthier today. David Bahnsen has the difficult job of trying to guide the Mississippi River that is Ron Baron's mind and keeping it from overflowing.
Crypto is on everyone’s mind. But there is just so much junk, who do you call? I call friend and neighbor Dan Tapiero who runs a billion-dollar-plus fund investing in crypto technologies and has been doing it extraordinarily successfully. He somehow seems to dodge the blowups and find the hidden gems. He will be joined by Lyn Alden, an extraordinary economist and crypto analyst, with 600,000+ followers on X. Getting these two together was a little bit of magic.
Next, we will be looking at the cluttered landscape of commercial real estate with Joe Anthony. He has been involved in all aspects of commercial real estate for the last 30 years with billions worth of transactions. He is pulling together a group of real estate insiders to share what's really happening. There are bright spots... and some places that are radioactive. Joe and friends know the difference, and they will share that with us.
Then Monday, April 29 starts with a geopolitical tour of the world with four-star general, Gen. David H. Petraeus, USA (RET.) One of the most prominent and decorated combat commanders in American history, he will give us high-level insights into the current global geopolitical landscape and provide a clear perspective of the situation in Ukraine, Russia, the Middle East, and ongoing tensions that matter to investors.
Here's a name you likely do not know: Britt Harris. He just retired as the CEO of the University of Texas/Texas A&M University Investment Management Company’s $60+ billion endowment fund. He was also CEO of Bridgewater then ran the $140 billion Teacher Retirement System of Texas. He is wired. In “retirement,” he can hopefully be a little more open, as I can tell you in private, he is riveting with his inside knowledge. He has won more awards and honors than I can list. He was ranked by Chief Investment Officer Magazine as one of the "most influential and powerful asset owners on earth.” His inside knowledge is riveting. Both Britt and Felix Zulauf will also be on the final panel.
One of the best, if not THE best, energy analysts is Mark Mills. Hands down, my go-to guy. With bestsellers and widely read letters, I devour his work. It helps that he is one of the nicest guys around and is also on that weekly call I mentioned so I get his thoughts regularly as he answers questions from a diverse, informed group. I am so pleased to be able to get him this year. Again, Must See SIC.
Strap in as I interview Ben Hunt, the narrative maven at Epsilon Theory. I recently had dinner with him and learned how he is using AI to drive his hedge fund. VERY cutting edge… and where the world of investing is going. We will talk about that future and more.
Then our own Jared Dillian returns to give us his latest thoughts on sentiment and markets. His Daily Dirtnap is one of my guilty daily pleasures.
Jim Bianco is one of the best bond and interest rate analysts anywhere. If you don't already, you should be following him on X. I simply cannot get enough of Jim. I guarantee you will learn more in 50 minutes with Jim than you thought possible. You really want to let him open up the future of interest rates and Fed policy for you.
We close the fourth day with a panel on longevity and biotech brought together by Dr. Mike Roizen. Mike has sold millions of books on all things health and age-related. He brings a panel of experts together to share the latest. Do you want to hear about the anti-aging therapies and drugs I have used or am following? Mike will lay them all out. This may be the most impactful session of the entire SIC for you if you take his advice. Living longer is serious business.
Then we come to the final day, May 1. Nothing but home runs. Lord Matt Ridley, author of two must-read books, The Rational Optimist and my top five must-read book The Evolution of Everything (along with many others). Matt is one of the most profound thinkers of our time, with a polymath’s grip on reality. We talk innovation and AI and get his views on how it all turns out. I can’t wait. I can listen to Matt for hours and always learn something new.
The venerable Howard Marks joins us again this year. He’s the founder of $170 billion Oak Tree Capital, one of the world’s most successful distressed-debt funds. His quarterly investor letters are legendary in the industry. What an honor to have him talk us through markets and cycles. Oaktree's 17 distressed-debt funds (which do not use leverage) have averaged annual gains of 19% after fees for the past 22 years. What a time to get him to talk about where he sees opportunities.
Then we talk politics with Frank Luntz, an insider’s insider. His analysis of the political world will be critical to our understanding of the issues that confront us. Now that No Labels is not going to offer a candidate, the political world is both narrower and more complex. Will RFK Jr. run as a Libertarian? Will he be on a debate stage? Will there even be debates? How does this all play out? I will certainly be glued to the screen during this session.
The cofounder of Palantir and guiding light behind an extraordinarily successful venture capital fund, 8VC, Joe Lonsdale is a gifted thinker and futurist as well as an active influence on our culture. His podcasts are not to be missed. He will be joining me for a discussion on artificial intelligence and technology. I am hoping you can get a little of what I enjoyed over sushi late last year while speaking with Joe and a group of his friends. I was simply blown away, and you will be too. This is Must See SIC.
Then we think about higher education and culture with Pano Kanelos, the founding president of the new University of Austin. I have mentioned UATX before. Higher education is in crisis (something we all knew), but over the last year, it has been shoved in our faces. What to do?
“We're just living in a moment where things seem to be coming apart, where people seem to be pulled away from each other, where institutions seem to be shaking in their foundations,” Kanelos said. “The best response is to build new things.” This is raw optimism and thinking about shaping the future of our national experiment. You will be impressed by his vision, and you’ll want your kids and grandkids to attend this amazing new school.
The penultimate speaker is my favorite central banker of all time, Bill White, the former chief economist for the Bank of International Settlements. He has a decidedly more disturbing view about quantitative easing at central banks and their ultimate relationship to inflation. He is one of the foremost experts in the world of complexity economics, and he has thought deeply about the endgame surrounding government debt throughout the world and how it will play out. Of course, there are multiple scenarios depending on the choices various governments make, but there will be road signs along the way to help us see the direction we're going. Bill understands those road signs as well as anybody. Must See SIC.
Then we come to the final panel. The interactions between Felix Zulauf, Bill White, Britt Harris, and your humble analyst will be full of fire and wisdom. How do we prepare for a crisis? What are THEY doing? David Bahnsen will make sure we get to the hard questions. Where do you invest today and what contingencies should you consider for course correction if needed? In a crisis, there will be many opportunities. What are they likely to be?
We are at a critical point of time. You can see and feel the potential for a crisis and possibly even a social breakdown in certain areas. But we have time to plan and think about how we should structure our own lives, not just our portfolios but those involving family and friends.
What I'm trying to do with this conference is to give you the basic tools so you can think through your own response and make the best decisions for yourself and your family. This is the most important conference I've ever done. You want to be there. You will be able to watch it live and then watch it again at your convenience, listen in audio format, and read the transcripts. We are making a point of having time after most sessions for your Q&A. I want you to have the best experience possible, and my team has really stepped it up.
Click on the link below and join us. It will be one of the best decisions you make this year.