Nato cannot stop Russian tanks in the Baltics, wargames predict

Nato cannot defend its eastern members and Russian tanks could be in the Baltic capitals within 60 hours according to new analysis from a US think tank.

Current forces in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania would be unable to stop a Russian invasion and would be overrun in under three days.

The analysis by the army research division of the Rand Corporation used war game scenarios played out by serving and former military officers to estimate that the longest it would take for Russian troops to reach the outskirts of Tallinn or Riga would be only 60 hours.

The report concludes: “The games’ findings are unambiguous: As currently postured, Nato cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members.”

Such a defeat would leave Nato “a limited number of options, all bad”, the 16-page analysis suggests.

Nato commanders would be left with the prospect of launching a belated and costly counter attack, which could lead to nuclear escalation.

Or they could accept defeat with “predictably disastrous consequences for the Alliance and, not incidentally, the people of the Baltics”.

But the research predicted the threat could met by increasing a deterrent force in the region. Stationing seven brigades including heavy armour in the Baltic States, would make any prospective assault costly enough to force the Kremlin to rethink.

Earlier this week, the US said it would quadruple military spending in Europe.

Ash Carter, the American Defence Secretary, said the US was now more worried about Russian actions than at anytime since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Spending on military deployments designed to reassure Eastern European countries who fear Russian meddling or even attack will jump from $789 million to £3.4 billion according to a 2017 budget proposal.

Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 is forcing America to think again about decades of cuts to its troop and equipment levels in Europe and rebuild a deterrent against Russia.

Nato countries such as the Baltic states and Poland fear they will also be targeted by the Kremlin.

The US has stepped up exercises in the countries and said it will redeploy tanks, howitzers, armoured vehicles and supplies in depots across the region in case of a crisis.

Last year, Britain’s top general in Nato warned tensions with Russia could blow up into all-out conflict, posing “an existential threat to our whole being”.

Gen Sir Adrian Bradshaw, deputy commander of Nato forces in Europe, said there was a danger Vladimir Putin could try to use his armies to invade and seize Nato territory, after calculating the alliance would be too afraid of escalating violence to respond.