Controlled

by ISIS

Areas lost by

ISIS this year

Turkey

IRAN

Hasaka

Erbil

Mosul

Aleppo

Raqqa

KURDISH

REGION

Syria

Kirkuk

SPARSELY

POPULATED

Homs

Iraq

Palmyra

Tikrit

LEBANON

Gained by

ISIS this year

SPARSELY

POPULATED

Baghdad

Damascus

Ramadi

GOLAN

HEIGHTS

ISRAEL

JORDAN

Controlled

by ISIS

Areas lost by

ISIS this year

Turkey

Hasaka

Erbil

Mosul

Aleppo

Raqqa

KURDISH

REGION

Syria

Kirkuk

SPARSELY

POPULATED

Homs

Iraq

Palmyra

Tikrit

LEBANON

Gained by

ISIS this year

SPARSELY

POPULATED

Baghdad

Damascus

Ramadi

GOLAN

HEIGHTS

JORDAN

Controlled by ISIS

Lost by ISIS this year

TURKEY

Mosul

Aleppo

Raqqa

Syria

Homs

Palmyra

Tikrit

Ramadi

Damascus

Baghdad

Iraq

Gained by

ISIS this year

JOR.

Controlled by ISIS

Lost by ISIS this year

IRAN

TURKEY

Mosul

Aleppo

Raqqa

Syria

Homs

Palmyra

Tikrit

Ramadi

Damascus

Baghdad

Israel

Iraq

Gained by

ISIS this year

JOR.

Gains and losses shown occurred between Jan. 5 and Dec. 14 of 2015. | The New York Times|Source: IHS Conflict Monitor

Kurds Advance in the North

Islamic State had some of its most significant losses in northern Syria. Kurdish forces, backed by air support from the American-led coalition, regained control of some areas near the Turkish border. But the extremists’ grip on the major cities of Raqqa, in Syria, and Mosul, in Iraq, remains unchallenged. The group also still holds sections of the Syrian border with Turkey.

Turkey

Hasaka

Gained

by ISIS

Lost by ISIS

Mosul

Erbil

Controlled

by ISIS

Aleppo

Raqqa

Iraq

Syria

20 MILES

Turkey

Hasaka

Lost by ISIS

Mosul

Controlled

by ISIS

Raqqa

Iraq

20 MILES

Turkey

Hasaka

Lost by ISIS

Mosul

Controlled

by ISIS

Raqqa

Iraq

The New York Times|Source: IHS Conflict Monitor

Controlling territory is a key part of Islamic State strategy because it feeds the group's caliphate rhetoric, which attracts foreign fighters. Territory is also a major source of revenue from taxes and fines that the group imposes.

In November, Kurdish and Yazidi fighters gained control of Sinjar, in Iraq, and of parts of a strategic road between Syria and Iraq. That has made it more difficult for Islamic State fighters to travel between the two countries, but the group still controls smaller roads in the region.

SINJAR MOUNTAIN

Mosul

Highway 47

Section controlled

by Kurdish and Yazidi

forces since November

SYRIA

IRAQ

Local roads

SINJAR MOUNTAIN

Mosul

Highway 47

Section controlled

by Kurdish and Yazidi

forces since November

SYRIA

IRAQ

Local roads

SYRIA

Local roads

IRAQ

SINJAR MOUNTAIN

Mosul

Highway 47

Section controlled

by Kurdish and Yazidi

forces since November

The New York Times|Source: NASA/U.S.G.S. Landsat

ISIS Strategy: Shifting the Front Lines

“When they come under pressure, they don’t fight to the end. They withdraw and counterattack somewhere else,” said Columb Strack, an analyst for IHS.

An example of that strategy was seen in May, when the group was losing control of areas near the border of Syria and Turkey. Instead of staying to defend the region, Islamic State fighters redoubled offensives on other front lines. The group was able to take over Palmyra, in central Syria, a city of historical and strategic importance, and Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province, a Sunni-dominated area in Iraq. Both cities were previously under the control of each country’s government.

Syria

Controlled

by ISIS

Lost by

ISIS

Homs

Palmyra

LEB.

Gained

by ISIS

Iraq

Damascus

20 MILES

Syria

Controlled

by ISIS

Homs

Palmyra

LEB.

Gained

by ISIS

Iraq

Damascus

The New York Times|Source: IHS Conflict Monitor

“If they can move into these Sunni areas, it’s much easier for the Islamic State to gain traction and expand,” Mr. Strack added. “It’s much harder for them to hold on to Kurdish territory. In Sunni areas, in some places, the population welcomes them.”

Another strategy used by the group is to shift attention from front lines by conducting bombings and assassinations inside enemy territory.

Turkey

ISIS activity from

Nov. 1 to Dec. 14

Currently under

ISIS control

IRAN

Hasaka

Mosul

Erbil

Aleppo

Raqqa

Kirkuk

Iraq

Palmyra

Homs

LEBANON

Baghdad

Syria

Damascus

Ramadi

Data includes assassinations, public executions, bombings and other activities by ISIS fighters as well as attacks by other actors against ISIS.

ISRAEL

JORDAN

Turkey

ISIS activity from

Nov. 1 to Dec. 14

Currently under

ISIS control

Hasaka

Mosul

Erbil

Aleppo

Raqqa

Kirkuk

Iraq

Palmyra

Homs

LEBANON

Baghdad

Syria

Damascus

Ramadi

Data includes assassinations, public executions, bombings and other activities by ISIS fighters as well as attacks by other actors against ISIS.

JORDAN

ISIS activity from

Nov. 1 to Dec. 14

Currently under

ISIS control

Turkey

Mosul

Aleppo

Raqqa

Homs

Iraq

LEB.

Syria

Ramadi

Damascus

Baghdad

JORDAN

Data includes bombings, assassinations, public executions and other activities by ISIS fighters as well as attacks by other actors against ISIS.

ISIS activity from

Nov. 1 to Dec. 14

Currently under

ISIS control

IRAN

Turkey

Mosul

Aleppo

Raqqa

Homs

Iraq

LEB.

Syria

Ramadi

Damascus

Baghdad

JORDAN

Data includes bombings, assassinations, public executions and other activities by ISIS fighters as well as attacks by other actors against ISIS.

The New York Times|Source: IHS Conflict Monitor

In Iraq, the Islamic State Faced Losses Near Two Cities

A mix of Iraqi government forces and Shiite militias pushed the terrorist group out of Tikrit, in April, and Islamic State fighters are currently surrounded in Ramadi.

Tikrit

Lost by

ISIS

Controlled

by ISIS

Gained

by ISIS

IRAN

Iraq

Baghdad

Ramadi

20 MILES

Tikrit

Lost by

ISIS

Controlled

by ISIS

Gained

by ISIS

Iraq

Baghdad

Ramadi

The New York Times|Source: IHS Conflict Monitor

Although militias were helpful in halting ISIS fighters, it will become more difficult for the militias to fight as they move farther from their home regions and into areas where they do not have the support of the local population. The use of paramilitary forces also raises sectarian tensions. Shiite militias in Iraq were accused of destroying hundreds of Sunni houses and businesses after retaking Tikrit.

After months of trying to regain control of Ramadi, Iraqi security forces were finally able to surround it in early December. This week, government forces advanced into the city center.

Contested

Albu Faraj

Islamic

State

control

Albu Jalib

Iraqi

government

control

Ramadi

Tamim

Government

advance in late

December

Anbar

University

The Iraqi government is present in contested areas,

but continues to face resistance.

1 MILE

Contested

Islamic

State

control

Iraqi

government

control

Ramadi

Government

advance in late

December

The Iraqi government is present in contested

areas, but it still faces resistance in those zones.

Contested

Islamic

State

control

Iraqi

government

control

Ramadi

Government

advance in late

December

The Iraqi government is present in contested

areas, but it still faces resistance in those zones.

Contested

Islamic

State

control

Iraqi

government

control

Ramadi

Government

advance in late

December

The Iraqi government is present in contested

areas, but it still faces resistance in those zones.

Contested

Islamic

State

control

Iraqi

government

control

Ramadi

Government

advance in late

December

The Iraqi government is present in contested

areas, but it still faces resistance in those zones.

The New York Times|Source: Institute for the Study of War

ISIS Has Firm Grip of Major Cities

Analysts say that the largest challenge ahead may be uprooting the group from Raqqa, its de facto capital, and from Mosul, the largest city under its control. The United States-led coalition has been carrying out airstrikes in the region for more than a year, but a ground attack on either city is unlikely anytime soon.

10 MILES

Maps are equal scale

Kurdish control

Kurdish

control

ISIS

control

Syria

Mosul

Raqqa

ISIS

control

Iraq

10 MILES

Maps are equal scale

Kurdish control

ISIS

control

Syria

Raqqa

Kurdish

control

Mosul

Iraq

ISIS

control

The New York Times|Source: IHS Conflict Monitor, Satellite imagery by DigitalGlobe via Google Earth

“I don’t see any imminent likelihood that ISIL will be eliminated,” said Michael E. O'Hanlon, an analyst for Brookings Institution, using another acronym for the group. “Mosul is more likely to be a project for later in 2016, once there’s some more opportunity to rebuild the Iraqi Army.”