Controlled
by ISIS
Areas lost by
ISIS this year
Turkey
IRAN
Hasaka
Erbil
Mosul
Aleppo
Raqqa
KURDISH
REGION
Syria
Kirkuk
SPARSELY
POPULATED
Homs
Iraq
Palmyra
Tikrit
LEBANON
Gained by
ISIS this year
SPARSELY
POPULATED
Baghdad
Damascus
Ramadi
GOLAN
HEIGHTS
ISRAEL
JORDAN
Controlled
by ISIS
Areas lost by
ISIS this year
Turkey
Hasaka
Erbil
Mosul
Aleppo
Raqqa
KURDISH
REGION
Syria
Kirkuk
SPARSELY
POPULATED
Homs
Iraq
Palmyra
Tikrit
LEBANON
Gained by
ISIS this year
SPARSELY
POPULATED
Baghdad
Damascus
Ramadi
GOLAN
HEIGHTS
JORDAN
Controlled by ISIS
Lost by ISIS this year
TURKEY
Mosul
Aleppo
Raqqa
Syria
Homs
Palmyra
Tikrit
Ramadi
Damascus
Baghdad
Iraq
Gained by
ISIS this year
JOR.
Controlled by ISIS
Lost by ISIS this year
IRAN
TURKEY
Mosul
Aleppo
Raqqa
Syria
Homs
Palmyra
Tikrit
Ramadi
Damascus
Baghdad
Israel
Iraq
Gained by
ISIS this year
JOR.
Kurds Advance in the North
Islamic State had some of its most significant losses in northern Syria. Kurdish forces, backed by air support from the American-led coalition, regained control of some areas near the Turkish border. But the extremists’ grip on the major cities of Raqqa, in Syria, and Mosul, in Iraq, remains unchallenged. The group also still holds sections of the Syrian border with Turkey.
Turkey
Hasaka
Gained
by ISIS
Lost by ISIS
Mosul
Erbil
Controlled
by ISIS
Aleppo
Raqqa
Iraq
Syria
20 MILES
Turkey
Hasaka
Lost by ISIS
Mosul
Controlled
by ISIS
Raqqa
Iraq
20 MILES
Turkey
Hasaka
Lost by ISIS
Mosul
Controlled
by ISIS
Raqqa
Iraq
Controlling territory is a key part of Islamic State strategy because it feeds the group's caliphate rhetoric, which attracts foreign fighters. Territory is also a major source of revenue from taxes and fines that the group imposes.
In November, Kurdish and Yazidi fighters gained control of Sinjar, in Iraq, and of parts of a strategic road between Syria and Iraq. That has made it more difficult for Islamic State fighters to travel between the two countries, but the group still controls smaller roads in the region.
SINJAR MOUNTAIN
Mosul
Highway 47
Section controlled
by Kurdish and Yazidi
forces since November
SYRIA
IRAQ
Local roads
SINJAR MOUNTAIN
Mosul
Highway 47
Section controlled
by Kurdish and Yazidi
forces since November
SYRIA
IRAQ
Local roads
SYRIA
Local roads
IRAQ
SINJAR MOUNTAIN
Mosul
Highway 47
Section controlled
by Kurdish and Yazidi
forces since November
ISIS Strategy: Shifting the Front Lines
“When they come under pressure, they don’t fight to the end. They withdraw and counterattack somewhere else,” said Columb Strack, an analyst for IHS.
An example of that strategy was seen in May, when the group was losing control of areas near the border of Syria and Turkey. Instead of staying to defend the region, Islamic State fighters redoubled offensives on other front lines. The group was able to take over Palmyra, in central Syria, a city of historical and strategic importance, and Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province, a Sunni-dominated area in Iraq. Both cities were previously under the control of each country’s government.
Syria
Controlled
by ISIS
Lost by
ISIS
Homs
Palmyra
LEB.
Gained
by ISIS
Iraq
Damascus
20 MILES
Syria
Controlled
by ISIS
Homs
Palmyra
LEB.
Gained
by ISIS
Iraq
Damascus
“If they can move into these Sunni areas, it’s much easier for the Islamic State to gain traction and expand,” Mr. Strack added. “It’s much harder for them to hold on to Kurdish territory. In Sunni areas, in some places, the population welcomes them.”
Another strategy used by the group is to shift attention from front lines by conducting bombings and assassinations inside enemy territory.
Turkey
ISIS activity from
Nov. 1 to Dec. 14
Currently under
ISIS control
IRAN
Hasaka
Mosul
Erbil
Aleppo
Raqqa
Kirkuk
Iraq
Palmyra
Homs
LEBANON
Baghdad
Syria
Damascus
Ramadi
Data includes assassinations, public executions, bombings and other activities by ISIS fighters as well as attacks by other actors against ISIS.
ISRAEL
JORDAN
Turkey
ISIS activity from
Nov. 1 to Dec. 14
Currently under
ISIS control
Hasaka
Mosul
Erbil
Aleppo
Raqqa
Kirkuk
Iraq
Palmyra
Homs
LEBANON
Baghdad
Syria
Damascus
Ramadi
Data includes assassinations, public executions, bombings and other activities by ISIS fighters as well as attacks by other actors against ISIS.
JORDAN
ISIS activity from
Nov. 1 to Dec. 14
Currently under
ISIS control
Turkey
Mosul
Aleppo
Raqqa
Homs
Iraq
LEB.
Syria
Ramadi
Damascus
Baghdad
JORDAN
Data includes bombings, assassinations, public executions and other activities by ISIS fighters as well as attacks by other actors against ISIS.
ISIS activity from
Nov. 1 to Dec. 14
Currently under
ISIS control
IRAN
Turkey
Mosul
Aleppo
Raqqa
Homs
Iraq
LEB.
Syria
Ramadi
Damascus
Baghdad
JORDAN
Data includes bombings, assassinations, public executions and other activities by ISIS fighters as well as attacks by other actors against ISIS.
In Iraq, the Islamic State Faced Losses Near Two Cities
A mix of Iraqi government forces and Shiite militias pushed the terrorist group out of Tikrit, in April, and Islamic State fighters are currently surrounded in Ramadi.
Tikrit
Lost by
ISIS
Controlled
by ISIS
Gained
by ISIS
IRAN
Iraq
Baghdad
Ramadi
20 MILES
Tikrit
Lost by
ISIS
Controlled
by ISIS
Gained
by ISIS
Iraq
Baghdad
Ramadi
Although militias were helpful in halting ISIS fighters, it will become more difficult for the militias to fight as they move farther from their home regions and into areas where they do not have the support of the local population. The use of paramilitary forces also raises sectarian tensions. Shiite militias in Iraq were accused of destroying hundreds of Sunni houses and businesses after retaking Tikrit.
After months of trying to regain control of Ramadi, Iraqi security forces were finally able to surround it in early December. This week, government forces advanced into the city center.
Contested
Albu Faraj
Islamic
State
control
Albu Jalib
Iraqi
government
control
Ramadi
Tamim
Government
advance in late
December
Anbar
University
The Iraqi government is present in contested areas,
but continues to face resistance.
1 MILE
Contested
Islamic
State
control
Iraqi
government
control
Ramadi
Government
advance in late
December
The Iraqi government is present in contested
areas, but it still faces resistance in those zones.
Contested
Islamic
State
control
Iraqi
government
control
Ramadi
Government
advance in late
December
The Iraqi government is present in contested
areas, but it still faces resistance in those zones.
Contested
Islamic
State
control
Iraqi
government
control
Ramadi
Government
advance in late
December
The Iraqi government is present in contested
areas, but it still faces resistance in those zones.
Contested
Islamic
State
control
Iraqi
government
control
Ramadi
Government
advance in late
December
The Iraqi government is present in contested
areas, but it still faces resistance in those zones.
ISIS Has Firm Grip of Major Cities
Analysts say that the largest challenge ahead may be uprooting the group from Raqqa, its de facto capital, and from Mosul, the largest city under its control. The United States-led coalition has been carrying out airstrikes in the region for more than a year, but a ground attack on either city is unlikely anytime soon.
10 MILES
Maps are equal scale
Kurdish control
Kurdish
control
ISIS
control
Syria
Mosul
Raqqa
ISIS
control
Iraq
10 MILES
Maps are equal scale
Kurdish control
ISIS
control
Syria
Raqqa
Kurdish
control
Mosul
Iraq
ISIS
control
“I don’t see any imminent likelihood that ISIL will be eliminated,” said Michael E. O'Hanlon, an analyst for Brookings Institution, using another acronym for the group. “Mosul is more likely to be a project for later in 2016, once there’s some more opportunity to rebuild the Iraqi Army.”